LONDON — And then there were three.
Fresh from a thumping election defeat, Britain’s diminished band of Conservative MPs on Tuesday whittled down the list of people hoping to take them back to power to a final trio: James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, and Kemi Badenoch.
Shadow Security Minister Tom Tugendhat bit the dust after winning the backing of just 20 of the 121 Tory MPs still standing in parliament.
But the biggest shock of the day was the surge in momentum behind Cleverly, the former home secretary and foreign secretary once seen as a real outsider in the race who has been buoyed by a strong performance at the Conservative party conference.
He won the backing of 39 MPs Tuesday. That’s up 18 on the previous round of voting, and represents a real rally in support among parliamentary colleagues, who decide the final list of two which rank-and-file members then get to vote on.
It looks like a proper fight is on for the second slot on the membership ballot: Ex-Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick ranked second with 31 MP votes — down two on last time. And former Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch netted the backing of 30 colleagues.
MPs do it all again Wednesday, paring back that list to a final two — before throwing the final decision over to the wider Conservative membership. The winner, to replace outgoing leader Rishi Sunak, will be announced Nov. 2, just three days ahead of the U.S. election and days after the Labour government’s budget.
So who are the three people who believe they can take the Tories back into government in just one go after the party’s worst election defeat in history? POLITICO has the essentials.
James Cleverly, the insurgent
Cleverly was initially seen as a centrist underdog in the race despite serving in two of the four great offices of state as home secretary and foreign secretary.
But his campaign has soared after a strong showing at Tory Party conference. Cleverly delivered his address from a lectern, urging the party to “be more normal,” to sell its legacy “with a smile” — and to focus on unity over factional infighting. He also stressed it was not time for an “apprentice” to lead — a subtle dig at his more inexperienced competitors.
Polling by grassroots Tory bible ConservativeHome, published Tuesday, found 55 percent of members agreeing that conference had made them more likely to vote for him. He’s also been boosted by the backing of former leadership contender Mel Stride.
A party loyalist, Cleverly stayed continuously in government from 2018 while the Tories cycled through leaders. He’s made great hay of serving as party chairman during the 2019 general election, when Boris Johnson battered Labour and bagged an 80-seat majority.
Cleverly’s a smooth media operator, but he can be rather gaffe prone. He once became embroiled in a row with an MP over whether or not he called the northern England town of Stockton-on-Tees a “sh*thole.” And he made an off-color joke about spiking drinks after announcing a law to clampdown on the crime.
Conservative leadership contenders delivered individual speeches on the final day of Conservative party conference at Birmingham ICC Arena on October 2, 2024. | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
Robert Jenrick, the shapeshifter
Once dubbed “Robert Generic” for seeming to represent a flavorless brand of centrist Toryism, Cleverly has tacked to the right on immigration. He’s in a fight with Badenoch now to make the final two after Tuesday’s vote.
Jenrick voted to stay in the EU in the 2016 Brexit referendum. But he came to prominence when he co-authored (with Rishi Sunak, no less) a Times op-ed endorsing Brexiteer Boris Johnson for leader.
Dropped from Johnson’s Cabinet team in 2021, not long after becoming embroiled in a controversy over a planning decision, Jenrick made a government comeback as immigration minister under Rishi Sunak. But he quit last year in protest at the lack of action on deportations.
The signs he was mulling a leadership bid were all there — ably assisted by Ozempic, he shed the pounds and got a snazzy new haircut. And he wooed influential right-wing MPs.
Policy wise, Jenrick has pledged to cap immigration and says he wants to do more on house building — and he’s racking up big donations.
He parked his tank firmly on Labour lawns by speaking about making the Tories the “trade union for the working people.” Jenrick has made leaving the European Convention on Human Rights on day one the cornerstone of his campaign.
He had a rough party conference in Birmingham, however. Jenrick raised eyebrows by releasing a video suggesting Britain’s elite military special forces were “killing rather than capturing terrorists,” because of the ECHR’s protections. It prompted anger from other candidates, two of whom pointed to their own military service.
The same ConservativeHome poll mentioned above had 43 percent of members saying they’re less likely to back him after the Birmingham gathering.
Kemi Badenoch, the firebrand
She’s a hit with the wider Tory party membership. Yet after Tuesday’s vote by MP colleagues, Badenoch is battling to stay in the race and make it to the final vote of the rank-and-file.
“Some people say I like a fight. I can’t imagine where they got that idea,” Badenoch quipped at party conference.
Yet her abrasive style came back to bite her in Birmingham after she told Times Radio maternity pay had “gone too far.” Her opponents leapt on the comments, which she insisted had been taken out of context.
The shadow housing secretary — who has done a host of Cabinet jobs — has framed her campaign around renewal and telling hard truths. She’s an avid proponent of free markets, free speech and wading into what’s sometimes characterized as the “culture wars.” She’s also in an ongoing battle with “Doctor Who” actor David Tennant, who used a speech at an LGBT awards ceremony to tell her to “shut up.” It’s a long story.
Though Badenoch is effective at generating attention and has strong government experience as an ex-trade and business secretary, her MP colleagues may be worried about headline-grabbing remarks distracting from the project of rebuilding the party from its colossal election defeat. Wednesday looks set to be a real nail-biter for Team Badenoch.
